Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality—of rising system-wide turbulence—calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.     

Beyond ‘trees are good’: Disservices,management costs,and tradeoffs in urban forestry

The provision of ecosystem services is a prominent rationale for urban greening, and there is a prevailing mantra that ‘trees are good’. However, understanding how urban trees contribute to sustainability must also consider disservices. In this perspective article, we discuss recent research on ecosystem disservices of urban trees, including infrastructure conflicts, health and safety impacts, aesthetic issues, and environmentally detrimental consequences, as well as management costs related to ecological disturbances and risk management. We also discuss tradeoffs regarding species selection and local conservation concerns, as well as the central role of human perception in the interpretation of ecosystem services and disservices, particularly the uncritical assertion that ‘everybody loves trees’. Urban forestry decision-making that fails to account for disservices can have unintended negative consequences for communities. Further research is needed regarding life cycle assessments, stakeholder decision-making, return-on-investment, and framings of services and disservices in urban forestry.     

Deriving heart rate variability indices from cardiac monitoring—An indicator of driver sleepiness

Objective: Driver fatigue is considered to be a major contributor to road traffic crashes. Cardiac monitoring and heart rate variability (HRV) analysis is a candidate method for early and accurate detection of driver sleepiness. This study has 2 objectives: to evaluate the (1) suitability of different preprocessing strategies for detecting and removing outlier heartbeats and spectral transformation of HRV signals and their impact of driver sleepiness assessment and (2) relation between common HRV indices and subjective sleepiness reported by a large number of drivers in real driving situations, for the first time.

Methods: The study analyzed >3,500 5-min driving epochs from 76 drivers on a public motorway in Sweden. The electrocardiograph (ECG) data were recorded in 3 studies designed to evaluate the physiological differences between awake and sleepy drivers. The drivers reported their perceived level of sleepiness according to the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) every 5?min. Two standard methods were used for identifying outlier heartbeats: (1) percentage change (PC), where outliers were defined as interbeat intervals deviating >30% from the mean of the four previous intervals and (2) standard deviation (SD), where outliers were defined as interbeat interval deviating >4 SD from the mean interval duration in the current epoch. Three standard methods were used for spectral transformation, which is needed for deriving HRV indices in the frequency domain: (1) Fourier transform; (2) autoregressive model; and (3) Lomb-Scargle periodogram. Different preprocessing strategies were compared regarding their impact on derivation of common HRV indices and their relation to KSS data distribution, using box plots and statistical tests such as analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Student’s t test.

Results: The ability of HRV indices to discriminate between alert and sleepy drivers does not differ significantly depending on which outlier detection and spectral transformation methods are used. As expected, with increasing sleepiness, the heart rate decreased, whereas heart rate variability overall increased. Furthermore, HRV parameters representing the parasympathetic branch of the autonomous nervous system increased. An unexpected finding was that parameters representing the sympathetic branch of the autonomous nervous system also increased with increasing KSS level. We hypothesize that this increment was due to stress induced by trying to avoid an incident, because the drivers were in real driving situations.

Conclusions: The association of HRV indices to KSS did not depend on the preprocessing strategy. No preprocessing method showed superiority for HRV association to driver sleepiness. This was also true for combinations of methods for frequency domain HRV indices. The results prove clear relationships between HRV indices and perceived sleepiness. Thus, HRV analysis shows promise for driver sleepiness detection.     

A new THOR shoulder design: a comparison with volunteers, the Hybrid III, and THOR NT

OBJECTIVE: Since the shoulders are rarely seriously injured in frontal or oblique collisions, they have been given low priority in the development of frontal impact crash test dummies. The shoulder complex geometry and its kinematics are of vital importance for the overall dummy kinematics. The shoulder complex also influences the risk of the safety belt slipping off the shoulder in oblique forward collisions. The first aim of this study was to develop a new 50th percentile male THOR shoulder design, while the second was to compare the new shoulder, mounted on a THOR NT dummy, with volunteer, THOR NT, and Hybrid III range of motion and stiffness data. The third aim was to test the repeatability of the new shoulder during dynamic testing and to see how the design behaves with respect to belt slippage in a 45 degrees far-side collision. METHODS: The new 50th percentile THOR shoulder design was developed with the aid of a shell model of the seated University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) 50th percentile male with coordinates for joints and bony landmarks (Schneider et al., 1983). The new shoulder design has human-like bony landmarks for the acromion and coracoid processes. The clavicle curvature and length are also made similar to that of a male human, as is the range of motion in the anterior-posterior, superior-inferior, and medial-lateral directions. The new shoulder design was manufactured and tested under the same conditions that T?rnvall et al. (2005b) used to compare the shoulder range of motion for the volunteers, Hybrid III, and THOR Alpha. The new design was also tested in two dynamic test configurations: the first was a 0 degrees full-frontal test and the second was a 45 degrees far-side test. The dummy tests were conducted with an R-16 seat with a three-point belt, the Delta V was 27.0+/-0.5 km/h and the maximum peak acceleration was approximately 14.6+/-0.5 g for each test. RESULTS: A new shoulder design with geometry close to that of humans was developed to be retrofitted to the THOR NT dummy. The results showed that the range of motion for the new shoulder complex during static loading was larger by at least a factor of three, for the maximum load (200 N/arm), than that of either the Hybrid III or the THOR NT; this means it was more similar to the volunteers' range of motion. It was observed that the THOR NT with the new shoulder did not slide out of the shoulder belt during a far-side collision. The performance of the new shoulder was reasonably repeatable and stable during both the static tests and the sled tests. CONCLUSION: A new shoulder for the THOR NT has been designed and developed, and data from static range of motion tests and sled tests indicate that the new shoulder complex has the potential to function in a more human-like manner on the THOR dummy.     

Coupling a 3D patch model and a rockfall module to assess rockfall protection in mountain forests

Many forests in the Alps are acknowledged for protecting objects, such as (rail) roads, against rockfall. However, there is a lack of knowledge on efficient silvicultural strategies and interventions to maintain these forests at optimal protection level. Therefore, assessment tools are required that quantify the rockfall protection effect of forest stands over time, and thereby provide the ability to evaluate the necessity and effect of management interventions. This paper introduces such a tool that consists of a 3D rockfall module embedded in the patch based forest simulator PICUS. The latter is extended for this study with a new regeneration module. In a series of experiments the new combined simulation tool is evaluated with regard to parameter sensitivity, model intercomparison experiments with recently proposed algorithms from the literature, and the ability to respond realistically to different management regimes in rockfall protection forests. Results confirm the potential of the new tool for realistic simulation of rockfall activity in heterogeneous mountain forests, but point at the urgent need to improve the knowledge base on the interaction of understory and rockfall activity. Further work will focus on model validation against empirical rockfall data, and include reduced tree vitality due to damage from boulder collisions as well as the explicit consideration of downed dead wood.     

Soil sensitivity to acidification in Asia: status and prospects

Exceedance of steady-state critical loads for soil acidification is consistently found in southern China and parts of SE Asia, but there is no evidence of impacts outside of China. This study describes a methodology for calculating the time to effects for soils sensitive to acidic deposition in Asia under potential future sulfur (S), nitrogen (N), and calcium (Ca) emission scenarios. The calculations are matched to data availability in Asia to produce regional-scale maps that provide estimates of the time (y) it will take for soil base saturation to reach a critical limit of 20% in response to acidic inputs. The results show that sensitive soil types in areas of South, Southeast, and East Asia, including parts of southern China, Burma, Hainan, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Western Ghats of India, may acidify to a significant degree on a 0-50 y timescale, depending on individual site management and abiotic and biotic characteristics. To make a clearer assessment of risk, site-specific data are required for soil chemistry and deposition (especially base cation deposition); S and N retention in soils and ecosystems; and biomass harvesting and weathering rates from sites across Asia representative of different soil and vegetation types and management regimes. National and regional assessments of soils using the simple methods described in this paper can provide an appreciation of the time dimension of soil acidification-related impacts and should be useful in planning further studies and, possibly, implementing measures to reduce risks of acidification.     

Characterization of humic-rich hydrocolloids and their metal species by means of competing ligand and metal exchange--an on-site approach

An improved on-site characterization of humic-rich hydrocolloids and their metal species in aquatic environments was the goal of the present approach. Both ligand exchange with extreme chelators (diethylenetetraaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA), ethylendiaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA)) and metal exchange with strongly competitive cations (Cu(II) were used on-site to characterize the conditional stability and availability of colloidal metal species in a humic-rich German bogwater lake (Venner Moor, Münsterland). A mobile time-controlled tangential-flow ultrafiltration technique (cut-off: 1 kDa) was applied to differentiate operationally between colloidal metal species and free metal ions, respectively. DOC (dissolved organic carbon) and metal determinations were carried out off-site using a home-built carbon analyzer and conventional ICP-OES (inductively-coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry), respectively. From the metal exchange equilibria obtained on-site the kinetic and thermodynamic stability of the original metal species (Fe, Mn, Zn) could be characterized. Conditional exchange constants Kex obtained from aquatic metal species and competitive Cu(II) ions follow the order Mn > Zn > > Fe. Obviously, Mn and Zn bound to humic-rich hydrocolloids are very strongly competed by Cu(II) ions, in contrast to Fe which is scarcely exchangeable. The exchange of aquatic metal species (e.g. Fe) by DTPA/EDTA exhibited relatively slow kinetics but rather high metal availabilities, in contrast to their Cu(II) exchange.     

Introduction of a waste incineration tax: Effects on the Swedish waste flows

A tax on waste-to-energy incineration of fossil carbon in municipal solid waste from households was introduced in Sweden on July 1, 2006. The tax has led to higher incineration gate fees. One of the main purposes with the tax is to increase the incentive for recycling of materials, including biological treatment. We investigate whether and to what extent this effect can be expected. A spreadsheet model is developed in order to estimate the net marginal cost of alternative waste treatment methods, i.e., the marginal cost of alternative treatment minus avoided cost of incineration. The value of the households’ time needed for source separation is discussed and included. The model includes the nine largest fractions, totalling 85% (weight), of the household waste currently being sent to waste incineration: food waste, newsprint, paper packaging, soft and hard plastic packaging, diapers, yard waste, other paper waste, and non-combustible waste. Our results indicate that the incineration tax will have the largest effect on biological treatment of kitchen and garden waste, which may increase by 9%. The consequences of an incineration tax depend on: (a) the level of the tax, (b) whether the tax is based on an assumed average Swedish fossil carbon content or on the measured carbon content in each incineration plant, (c) institutional factors such as the cooperation between waste incinerators, and (d) technological factors such as the availability of central sorting of waste or techniques for measurement of fossil carbon in exhaust gases, etc. Information turns out to be a key factor in transferring the governing force of the tax to the households as well improving the households’ attitudes towards material recycling.     

Nitrogen Budget of a Spruce Forest Ecosystem After Six-year Addition of Ammonium Sulphate in Southwest Sweden

A nitrogen (N) budget was constructed for a period of 6 years (1988–1993) in a Norway spruce stand with current deposition of 19 kg N and 22 kg S ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. The stand was fertilized annually by addition of 100 kg N and 114 kg S ha⁻¹ (NS). Above and below ground biomass, litterfall, fine- root litter production, soil solution and net mineralization were measured to estimate pools, fluxes and accumulation of nitrogen. The average needle litterfall in control (C) and NS plots in 1993 was 2.2 and 2.5 ton ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. The fine root litter production prior to treatment (1987) was 4.4 ton ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ and after treatment (1993) it was 4.5 and 3.9 ton ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in C and NS plots, respectively. Net N mineralization in the soil profile down to 50 cm was estimated to be 86 and 115 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in C and NS plots, respectively in 1992. During the treatment period the uptake of N in the needle biomass in C and NS plots was 29 and 77 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. No N was accumulated in needles of C plot where the NS plots accumulated 34 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. Of the annually added inorganic N to NS plots 47% was accumulated in the above and below ground biomass and 37% in the soil. N fluxes via fine-root litter production in the C plots were much higher (54 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) than that via litterfall (29 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). The corresponding values in the NS plots were 65 and 43 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. Most of the net N mineralization occurred in the FH layer and upper mineral soil. It is concluded that fine root litter and litterfall play an important role in the cycling of N. Despite a high N uptake the losses of N in litterfall and fine root litter resulted in an incorporation of N in soil organic matter.     

Exposure Programme on Atmospheric Corrosion Effects of Acidifying Pollutants in Tropical and Subtropical Climates

Many national exposure programmes have been performed in tropical and subtropical climates during the last 50 years. However, ambitious programmes involving more than a few countries are scarce. In this paper a recently formed network of test sites is described involving 12 test sites in Asia (India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and China including Hong Kong) and four test sites in Africa (South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). This effort is part of the 2001–2004 Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) funded Programme on Regional Air Pollution in Developing Countries (RAPIDC). Corrosion attack after one (2002–2003) year of exposure (carbon steel, zinc, copper, limestone and paint coated steel) are presented together with environmental data (SO₂, NO₂, HNO₃, O₃, particles, amount and pH of precipitation, temperature and relative humidity) for all the test sites. The obtained corrosion values are substantially higher than expected for limestone, higher than expected for carbon steel and lower than expected for zinc compared to values calculated using the best available dose–response functions.